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Enormous, Humongous January Trade Deficit Hits Jobs, Wages

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Dave Johnson

The U.S. Census Bureau reported Friday that the January goods and services trade deficit was an enormous, humongous $45.68 billion. The January goods deficit was $63.7 billion, offset by an $18 billion services surplus.

Both imports and exports were down, but exports hit a 5 1/2-year low thanks to a “strong” dollar, currency manipulation and weak economies outside of the US. According to Reuters, automobile imports were the highest on record.

According to the Census Bureau, “The [goods] deficit with China increased $1.4 billion to $31.1 billion in January. Exports increased less than $0.1 billion to $8.6 billion and imports increased $1.5 billion to $39.8 billion.”

Trade Deficit Hits Jobs

The trade deficit is a metric for jobs leaking out of the economy, which causes wages to stagnate. The continuing trade deficit is the reason that Friday’s February jobs report showed that manufacturing lost 16,000 jobs. Scott Paul, President of the Alliance for American Manufacturing said of the jobs and trade deficit report:

“Working people in states like Michigan and Ohio feel the lousy manufacturing job loss and growing trade deficit with China, even if Wall Street and D.C. do not. If you’re wondering why there’s so much interest in political insurgencies among both Democrats and Republicans this year, here’s your answer.

“We’ll never experience a true manufacturing resurgence in the United States unless we get trade policy right and get a lot tougher with China. So far I haven’t seen the will on Capitol Hill or the White House to do that, even though I see it on the campaign trail.”

Michael Stumo of the Coalition for a Prosperous America (CPA) said of the report,

“The administration’s willful disregard for poor trade performance is enabled by the establishment think tanks and many congressional leaders, to the detriment of the U.S. economy. The simple, unassailable fact is that trade deficits shrink our economy while trade surpluses grow our economy. The presidential campaign shows that voters support candidates that want a fundamentally different trade policy that puts American workers, companies, farmers and ranchers first.”

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has made this a centerpiece of his campaign, spouting the trade deficit numbers in stump speeches and debates, and explaining how our country’s trade policies are costing so many jobs.

This blog originally appeared at ourfuture.org on March 4, 2016.  Reprinted with permission.

Dave Johnson has more than 20 years of technology industry experience. His earlier career included technical positions, including video game design at Atari and Imagic. He was a pioneer in design and development of productivity and educational applications of personal computers. More recently he helped co-found a company developing desktop systems to validate carbon trading in the US.

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When Too Much is Terrible

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Leo Gerard

It’s lights out in Lorain on March 31. The town’s steel mill, site of a new electric arc furnace and $120 million investment, had given 1,200 Ohioans good middle-class jobs this time last year.

But by April, a relentless avalanche of underpriced Chinese steel will have shoved all but a fewof those workers into the street.

The same is true of steelworkers in Granite City, Ill., Lone Star, Texas, and Gary, Ind., and aluminum workers in New Madrid, Mo., Hannibal, Ohio, and Hawesville, Ky. It’s true of glass workers and paper workers in small towns across America.

The same catastrophe is slamming small towns across Europe. ArcelorMittal cited the Chinese avalanche when it closed its steel mill near Bilbao in northern Spain last month. Tata Steel cut 1,050 jobs earlier this month from its Port Talbot plant in South Wales. Two weeks ago, 5,000 steel and other workers and managers from 17 European nations gathered in Brussels to protest overwhelming, underpriced Chinese imports.


China makes too much steel. And many other commodities. By providing government subsidies and other supports like currency manipulation that are illegal under international trade regulations, China sells those products overseas at prices below production cost, undercutting fair market manufacturers like U.S. Steel and Republic Steel in Lorain. Too much has been good for China until now. Now it wants “market economy” status in the World Trade Organization. So, suddenly, it has announced it will reduce its excessive steel production. That will cost 400,000 Chinese steelworkers their jobs. It turns out that too much is terrible for Chinese workers and Chinese towns as well.

To put this in perspective, last year, as American and European mills closed, workers lost their jobs, and prices for some steel products fell by 50 percent because of massive oversupply from China, China continued steelmaking full tilt. It made half the steel in the world. And itsexports rose by 50 percent.

Chinese steel firms could accomplish that only with subsidies such as “loans” that don’t have to be paid back, free land and free utilities. These are not companies operating in a market economy. These are government-subsidized entities. And that’s fine if all of the products are sold domestically. But these subsidies are illegal when the products are sold overseas because the falsely underpriced products distort what is supposed to be a fair market.

Chinese government interference in the international market is damaging corporations like U.S. Steel and ArcelorMittal, the largest steel company in the world.  It reported a staggeringloss of nearly $8 billion for 2015. U.S. Steel’s 2015 loss was $1.5 billion.

That’s what Chinese steel overcapacity looks like on Wall Street. What it did to Lorain is more visceral.

“You could see the concern in our members’ faces,” Louise Zimmerman, President of United Steelworkers (USW) Local Union 2354, told me. After Republic Steel announced the layoffs, she said these workers as well as members of USW Local 1104 at the plant wondered, “What am I going to do? How am I going to pay my bills when my unemployment runs out?”

The steel mill is split, with Republic and U.S. Steel using parts of it. Both firms have furloughed workers over the past year. In March, U.S. Steel sent 600 home and Republic 200.In July, Republic furloughed another 125 when it had to shut down its brand new electric arc furnace.

Then, on Jan. 7, Republic announced it would idle its side of the plant and lay off 200. The next day, U.S. Steel said it would virtually shut its end, laying off 261. Lights out.

For Lorain workers laid off last year, unemployment benefits already have run out.

“Driving around the city of Lorain is pretty heartbreaking,” Louise told me the other day. “You see people with signs saying, ‘Please help me with food for my family.’”

“When I go to the grocery store or stop at a Kmart, normally, there would be a lot of traffic in those stores. Now it is incredibly quiet. Some clerks were folding spring clothes, and they told me they had no place to put the stuff because no one was buying the stuff from the racks from last season. No one is even going to the discount stores,” she said.

As the two big employers began shuttering operations, they paid less taxes to the city and the school district. Now the city faces a huge deficit and may have to cut services and lay off workers. That would be more people without jobs. And even less taxes paid. And less clothes sold at Kmart. Then fewer people employed there.

Louise’s brother owns a used car lot, and normally at this time of year, when workers get their income tax refunds, his business picks up. But he told his sister he has barely sold a car since the first of the year. In Lorain, people can’t even afford a cheap car now.

And public transit isn’t going to help, she said. The USW represents Lorain’s bus drivers, so she knows the situation well. Because of the town’s budget problems, the transit system is unable to add routes. So there may be no way for a person without a car to get to a job.

“I grew up here in Lorain. And I am very afraid of what is going to happen to this town and to the members of my union,” Louise said.

“And all of this,” she said, “is because of overcapacity and dumping and currency manipulation thousands of miles away in China.”

All of it is devastating lives in Gary, Granite City, Lone Star, New Madrid, Hannibal, Hawesville, Port Talbot, Bilbao, and myriad places across the United States and Europe. And now China too.

National leaders, who closed their eyes, clicked their heels and wished China were a market economy, gave workers and communities and commodity producers – not just steel companies – this disastrous result.

While they kept their eyes shut, China massively overbuilt its steel capacity. China is throwing unemployed workers and bankrupted communities a bone now, saying it will reduce capacity by up to 150 million tons. That’s not nothing. And it will certainly be painful to the 400,000 Chinese steelworkers who will lose their jobs.

But China’s overcapacity is 2.26 times that – 340 million tons.  After 150 million tons is cut, the remaining 190 million tons of overcapacity is still way too much. The remaining overcapacity is nearly 2.5 times the 78.9 million tons produced in 2015 in the United States, the world’s fourth largest steel producer.

China maintains that overcapacity with government supports and currency manipulation. Otherwise it wouldn’t exist. And those interventions in the steel industry and other industries mean that China is not a market economy.

Granting China that status would make it even harder for workers and corporations to get the tariffs that are the only measures keeping some industries alive now. American and European workers have known for a long time that Chinese overcapacity is terrible. Now, unfortunately, Chinese workers also will soon find out that too much is terrible. But that limited and calculated ploy by China does not justify granting market economy status to a clearly non-market economy.

This blog was originally posted on ourfuture.org on March 1, 2016. Reprinted with permission.

Leo Gerard is the president of the United Steelworkers International union, part of the AFL-CIO. Gerard, the second Canadian to lead the union, started working at Inco’s nickel smelter in Sudbury, Ontario at age 18. For more information about Gerard, visit usw.org.

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Is Korea FTA Job Loss, Deficit Growth a Harbinger of TPP?

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Image: Mike HallThe U.S.–Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS–FTA) turns 2 years old Saturday and imports from Korea continue to flood into the United States, costing workers their jobs. Exports to Korea have failed to live up to the promises made when the agreement passed Congress, says United Steelworkers (USW) President Leo W. Gerard. The agreement, he says:

Has failed to produce good jobs and the evidence on exports is clear. Our export growth rate in the past 20 out of 21 months is below the average monthly level seen before the FTA was signed.

Despite promises of U.S. job growth and improvements in trade balances (similar to what we’re hearing about the Trans-Pacific Partnership Free Trade Agreement [TPP])—Gerard says imports from Korea are up by 4% and:

The monthly U.S. trade deficit with Korea has ballooned 45 percent when compared to the pre-FTA level. The damage from KORUS and other free trade deals have been shown by the Economic Policy Institute to have caused the loss of tens of thousands of good-paying U.S. manufacturing jobs.

He warns that if TPP has the same negative and growing impact as KORUS, America’s job losses and the effect of trade imbalances will multiply.

Read more from the USW.

In related trade news, there is still time for you to sign the petition to Congress to stop the legislation (H.R. 3830/S. 1900) that would give Fast Track trade authority approval for all major trade agreements over the next four years, including the TPP.

Under the Fast Track process, Congress can only vote yes or no on the full agreement. It cannot amend, improve or fix any flaws in the bill. The North American Free Trade Agreement and other job-killing trade deals were approved via Fast Track.

This article was originally printed on AFL-CIO on March 14, 2014.  Reprinted with permission.

About the Author: Mike Hall is a former West Virginia newspaper reporter, staff writer for the United Mine Workers Journaland managing editor of the Seafarers Log.  He came to the AFL- CIO in 1989 and has written for several federation publications, focusing on legislation and politics, especially grassroots mobilization and workplace safety.

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Assert Yourself, America; Don’t be an Illegal Trade Victim

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Leo GerardLong-suffering victim is hardly the American image. Paul Revere, Mother Jones, John Glenn, Martin Luther King Jr. — those are American icons. Bold, wry, justice-seeking.

So how is it that America finds herself in the position of schoolyard patsy, woe-is-me casualty of China’s illegal trade practices that are destroying U.S. renewable energy manufacturing and foreclosing an energy-independent future?

Come on, America. Show some of that confident pioneer spirit. Stand up for yourself. Tell China that America isn’t going to hand over its lunch money anymore; international trade law will be enforced now.

That’s the demand the United Steelworkers (USW) union made this week when it filed a 5,800-page suit detailing how China violates a wide variety of World Trade Organization (WTO) obligations.

The case, now in the hands of the U.S. Trade Representative, shows how China uses illegal land grants, prohibited low-interest loans and other outlawed measures to pump up its renewable energy industries and facilitate export of those products at artificially low prices to places like the United States and Europe.

The U.S. aids renewable energy industries, like solar cell and wind turbine manufacturers, but no where near the extent that China does. And the American aid lawfully goes to renewable manufacturers that produce for domestic consumption. China, by contrast, illegally subsidizes industries that export, a strategy that kills off competition.

The USW recognizes and appreciates that trade with China has lifted millions there out of poverty. But truly fair trade would benefit workers in both China and the United States. And that is what the USW is demanding.

The USW is far from alone in accusing China of violations. New York Times reporter Keith Bradsher described them in a story Sept. 8, titled “On Clean Energy, China Skirts Rules.” It ends with this quote from Zhao Feng, general manger of Hunan Sunzone Optoelectronics, a two-year-old solar panel manufacturer that exports nearly 95 percent of its products to Europe and is opening offices in three U.S. cities to push into the American market:

“Who wins this clean energy race really depends on how much support the government gives.”

The U.S. isn’t providing support that violates WTO regulations. China is. And it’s hundreds of billions — $216 billion from China’s stimulus package, another $184 billion to be spent through 2020, $172 million in research and development over the past four years.

Bradsher’s story details illegal aid given Sunzone and says that it’s common, not exceptional. It includes China turning over land to Sunzone for a third of the market price and government-controlled banks granting Sunzone low-interest loans that the provincial government helps Sunzone repay.

In addition, the USW suit notes that China, which accounts for 93 percent of the world’s production of so-called rare earth materials like dysprosium and terbium essential for green energy technology, has severely restricted their export. That practice, illegal under WTO rules, forces some foreign companies to move manufacturing to China to get access.

And when corporations move, China routinely – and illegally — mandates they transfer technology to Chinese partners, which often means U.S.-tax-dollar-supported research and development benefits China.

That is one reason China rose to first in the world in clean energy so quickly. China now leads globally in producing solar panels. It doubled its wind power capacity in one year – 2009. Worldwide, Chinese manufacturers supply at least half of all hydropower projects and fabricate 75 percent of all compact fluorescent light bulbs.

Meanwhile, here in the United States, BP shut down its solar panel manufacturing plant in Maryland this year and Evergreen Solar of Marlboro, Mass., plans to close its American plant, eliminating 300 U.S. jobs. Both are moving manufacturing to China.

Germany’s Solar World still manufactures in Europe and the United States, and its chief executive, Frank A. Asbeck, told Bradsher the German solar industry association is investigating whether to file a suit of its own to try to stop China’s illegal practices:

“China is cordoning off its own solar market to fend off international competition while arming its industry with a bottomless pile of subsidies and boundless lines of credit.”

The Times story also says China’s “aggressive government policies” are designed to ensure “Chinese energy security.”

China’s illegal aggression to secure its energy independence and dominate world production of green technology threatens the energy security of the United States.

America turned to renewables not just to diminish climate change but also to reduce dependence on foreign oil, an addiction that has entangled the U.S. in costly and bloody wars.

If the United States can’t build its own renewable energy products, it will forfeit the next generation high technology industry and good manufacturing jobs, and it will remain dangerously beholden to foreign nations for energy.

China agreed to follow international regulations when it joined the World Trade Organization. This pledge was crucial because China’s economy is government-controlled, very different from the free market economies of the United States and most Western nations.

Faced with blatant rule-flouting that has cost USW members their jobs and threatens to cost their children high-technology manufacturing of the future, the USW is demanding the American government put a stop to it.

That is how a true American acts. Americans have a sense of justice. They follow the rules and expect trading partners to do the same. When they don’t, Americans do something about it.

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