With the Democratsâ€™ failure to win an outright majority in the Senate and Republicans making surprising gains in the House, Joe Bidenâ€™s sweeping promises to expand American labor rights just got a lot harder to fulfill.
Proposals pushed by Democratic lawmakers to raise the federal minimum wage to $15, expand workersâ€™ ability to form unions and rewrite years of U.S. law form the cornerstone of Bidenâ€™s labor agenda. But if Republican Mitch McConnell stays in charge of the Senate, itâ€™s unlikely that any push for collective bargaining rights or wage hikes would advance even if Biden wins the presidency.
â€śI am concerned about it,â€ť Randi Weingarten, president of the 1.7 million-member American Federation of Teachers, said in an interview.
Unions had high hopes for the election, spending $188 million backing Democratic candidates and voting for Biden in larger numbers than the general electorate did. They were also a major source of grassroots organizing power for the party.
Yet Democrats failed to win in many Senate battlegrounds this week, and both parties are still short of a majority in the chamber. Georgia is now the key to control of the Senate, with both of the stateâ€™s races appearing likely to head to runoffs in early January.
Despite the disappointing results, Weingarten and other union leaders say theyâ€™re not giving up. She says there will be â€śa real fightâ€ť to enact Democratsâ€™ PRO Act in a GOP-controlled Senate, a bill that Biden has backed as a major priority of his administration that would vastly expand workersâ€™ ability to form unions.
But passing that legislation and raising the federal minimum wage to $15 may be unachievable with GOP control of the Senate. House Democratsâ€™ faced major headwinds from red-state members of their own caucus when pushing for the Raise the Wage Act, which the chamber passed July 18.
Enacting the most progressive reforms largely hinged â€śon taking over the Senate and either winning enough votes to make the filibuster unimportant or dealing with the filibuster,â€ť Rep. Andy Levin (D-Mich.), who serves on the Health Education and Labor Committee, said.
A Biden administration could still get a lot done if it â€śputs the right peopleâ€ť in the Labor Department, Levin said, â€śbut thereâ€™s no fundamental reform.â€ť
Biden will also have to weigh how much political capital he wants to risk with the powerful business lobby â€” which has billed the Democratsâ€™ proposals as potential job killers and warned that putting any more liability on businesses could stymie the economic recovery from the coronavirus.
Some in the business community pointed to 2009, when newly elected President Barack Obama fell silent on a key labor-backed bill, the Employee Free Choice Act, despite endorsing it in the 2008 campaign and calling it a top priority.
Even with a 60-vote Democratic Senate supermajority, the party couldnâ€™t pass the bill, which would have allowed unions to represent workers based on the informal collection of signed authorization forms, known as card check, instead of an NLRB-supervised secret ballot election.
The labor movement will keep pushing for its agenda, despite the shaky odds of full Democratic control of Congress, said AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka.
â€śWe’ll figure out a way to get it done eventually,â€ť Trumka said on a press call Thursday. â€śAnd weâ€™ll have popular support. There are a number of legislative vehicles that we use; we will try everything we can.â€ť
Weingarten said she is optimistic about Bidenâ€™s chances to find some bipartisanship in a divided Washington. â€śGiven who Joe Biden is,â€ť she said, â€śhe uniquely will help demonstrate to these hard-core Republican senators and to the business community that long-term it’s in everyone’s interest to rebuild the middle class.â€ś
Other labor leaders agreed that they donâ€™t plan to tamp down their expectations of Bidenâ€™s labor agenda even if Republicans win control of the Senate, a result that wonâ€™t be known until January with the likely Georgia runoff elections.
â€śWe are going to stay fiercely committed to demanding that the House, Senate and president take dramatic, bold action on curbing the pandemic and creating good jobs that people can feed their families on, and by tackling racial and inequality and the climate crisis,â€ť Mary Kay Henry, international president of the 2 million-member Service Employees International Union, told POLITICO.
Major unions like SEIU organized canvassing drives and texting campaigns in swing states such as Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada. Union members overall were more likely to support Biden than voters generally, with 57 percent of union households backing him compared to 51 percent of non-union households, according to The New York Timesâ€™ exit polling.
But labor leaders say President Donald Trump aided the GOPâ€™s performance by giving working people a message â€” albeit a false one â€” that they wanted to hear: Covid-19 will end after Election Day.
â€śIf you’re tired of COVID, and you’re fatigued by COVID, and you’re anxious to get back to your job and your work or your small business is teetering, you want to believe that,â€ť Weingarten said.
â€śYou can’t underestimate the social isolation that has happened in America, since the start of this terrible pandemic,â€ť she said.
Other leaders blamed Democratsâ€™ performance in congressional races on freshman lawmakers, who are usually the most vulnerable in their efforts to get reelected.
â€śDemocrats can also always do a better job of talking about kitchen table economics,â€ť said Trumka. â€śI tell them that every single time that I meet with them, but many of the losses that we saw on the House side, were in districts with first-time Democratic seats.â€ť
Former Labor Secretary Robert Reich said a Biden presidency could be the last chance for unions to secure an expansion of labor rights before restrictions on collective bargaining drown out their influence.
â€śAs organized labor declines in numbers and percentage of the workforce, it has less political clout,â€ť said Reich, who served under President Bill Clinton. â€śSo itâ€™s a death spiral.”
ThisÂ blogÂ originally appeared atÂ PoliticoÂ on November 6, 2020. Reprinted with permission.
About the Author: Eleanor Mueller is a legislative reporter for POLITICO Pro, covering policy passing through Congress. She also authors Day Ahead, POLITICO Proâ€™s daily newsletter rounding up Capitol Hill goings-on.