Yesterday I noted that polling on Ohio’s Issue 2 (the ballot measure formerly known as SB 5) was tightening, with opposition still leading the way but by reduced margins. Today, it’s a different story.
Public Policy Polling (PDF). 10/13-16 (8/11-14). MoE ±4.1%.
Q: This fall, Ohio will have a referendum on whether to approve or reject Senate Bill 5, which was passed earlier this year and limits collective bargaining rights for public employees. If the election was today, would you vote to approve or reject Senate Bill 5?
Approve: 36 (39)
Reject: 56 (50)
Not sure: 8 (11)
Different in that the margin for repeal has opened back up, that is. Tom Jensen points out that:
The preferences of Republicans and independents on Senate Bill 5 are mostly unchanged from two months ago. Independents are evenly divided on the issue, 46/46. And Republicans want to uphold it 61/30. But Democrats have unified in their support for repealing SB 5. In August they were only planning to overturn it by a 69/21 margin. Now that figure is 80/13. That increase in Democratic support for repeal may be indicative of voters becoming increasingly aware what the implications of a ‘yes’ and ‘no’ vote are on this somewhat complicated referendum.
With state tea party leaders talking about how Issue 2 is really about defunding unions and defeating Democrats, no wonder Ohio Democrats are coming together to vote it down.
There’s still nearly three weeks to go before the vote, and each one of those weeks will see an avalanche of Republican money poured into deceptive advertising and mailers. But 20 points is a big lead to overcome in three weeks, even for the biggest money and the dirtiest campaign.
This blog originally appeared in Daily Kos Labor on October 19, 2011. Reprinted with permission.
About the Author: Laura Clawson is labor editor at Daily Kos. She has a PhD in sociology from Princeton University and has taught at Dartmouth College. From 2008 to 2011, she was senior writer at Working America, the community affiliate of the AFL-CIO.